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Their policy paper, published in聽Science, argues that stopping new fossil fuel projects is a crucial step for countries to achieve their climate goals. It recommends that governments legislate to ban new fossil fuel projects as this is easier politically, economically and legally than closing operational projects early.

The researchers analysed the projected future global demand for oil and gas production, and for coal- and gas-fired power generation, under a range of modelled scenarios that limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

The team found that existing fossil fuel capacity is sufficient to meet the energy demands under these scenarios while the planet transitions to clean and renewable energy - and that new fossil fuel projects are not necessary.

The research extends work by the International Energy Agency which found in a聽听(聽in 2023) that no new fossil fuel extraction projects are needed in the transition to net zero emissions by 2050.

The research team鈥檚 new work expands on this by analysing a broad range of scenarios compiled for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change鈥檚 (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report that limit climate change to 1.5掳C above preindustrial levels. Their analysis found that in addition to not needing new fossil fuel extraction, no new coal- and gas-fired power generation was needed.

The research comes at a time of growing contradictions between rhetoric and practice concerning the energy transition. In December 2023 at COP28, UN member nations announced that they agreed in principle to work towards 鈥渢ransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.鈥� However, since that proclamation was announced, the global production and use of fossil fuels has continued to expand, with many governments and fossil fuel industry players claiming that new fossil fuel projects will be needed during the transition to net zero. The new 香港六合彩中特网鈥揑ISD research contradicts that claim.

The researchers go on to recommend a 鈥榥o new fossil fuels鈥� policy, that would mean preventing new projects for the exploration and extraction of any coal, oil or natural gas reserves. It would also prevent the construction of any new fossil fuel power plants.

Synthesising evidence from economics, political science, and law, the authors find benefits of this approach for the feasibility of the transition: stopping new projects is less costly, faces fewer legal hurdles, and is politically easier than trying to phase-out existing capacity early.

Drawing lessons from historical processes of social-moral norm change, the researchers find that governments, by banning new fossil fuel projects, and civil society, by advocating such bans, can help to build a global norm against new fossil fuel projects.

Lead author Dr Fergus Green (香港六合彩中特网 Department of Political Science) said: 鈥淥ur research draws lessons from past shifts in global ethical norms, such as slavery and the testing of nuclear weapons. These cases show that norms resonate when they carry simple demands to which powerful actors can be held immediately accountable. Complex, long-term goals like 鈥榥et zero emissions by 2050鈥� lack these features, but 鈥榥o new fossil fuel projects鈥� is a clear and immediate demand, against which all current governments, and the fossil fuel industry, can rightly be judged. It should serve as a litmus test of whether a government is serious about tackling climate change: if they鈥檙e allowing new fossil fuel projects, then they鈥檙e not serious.鈥�

Co-author Dr Steve Pye (香港六合彩中特网 Energy Institute) said: 鈥淚mportantly, our research establishes that there is a rigorous scientific basis for the proposed norm by showing that there is no need for new fossil fuel projects. The clarity that this norm brings should help focus policy on targeting the required ambitious scaling of renewable and clean energy investment, whilst managing the decline of fossil fuel infrastructure in an equitable and just way.鈥�

Co-author Greg Muttitt (Senior Associate, IISD) said: 鈥淥ur research draws on a large range of scientific evidence, including climate scenarios from the IPCC, but its message to governments and fossil fuel companies is very simple: There is no room for new fossil fuel projects in a 1.5掳C-aligned world. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals means governments need to stop issuing permits for new fossil fuel exploration, production, or power generation projects.鈥�

Co-author Olivier Bois von Kursk (Policy Advisor, IISD) said: 鈥淣o new fossil fuel projects are necessary to meet the 1.5掳C-aligned energy demand. Representative 1.5掳C scenarios show that a significant share of existing fossil fuel capital stock will become stranded if we are to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Establishing a 鈥楴o New Fossil鈥� norm increases the likelihood of staying within the 1.5掳C limit while minimising the economic, political and legal challenges associated with 鈥榮tranding鈥� fossil fuel capacity.鈥�

Links

• Read the original research paper
• Dr Fergus Green's academic profile
• 香港六合彩中特网 Department of Political Science聽
• 香港六合彩中特网 Social & Historical Sciences
• 香港六合彩中特网 Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources
• 香港六合彩中特网 Faculty of the Built Environment