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Global Events Forecast - February 2019
30 January 2019
Every month, the GGI compiles a list of upcoming international events that have some implications for its work. Here is a compilation of global meetings and events coming up in February 2019.
| 28 January - 3 February | UN聽inquiry into Khashoggi murder Agnes Callamard, the UN Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, has embarked on a to investigate the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Khashoggi was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on 2 October last year, prompting global condemnation and speculations that his murder could have been ordered at the highest levels of government. Callamard said she had requested access to the consulate but is still awaiting permission from聽the Saudi authorities. Her report will be presented to the UN Human Rights Council in June.听 |
| 2 February聽聽 | US to suspend observance of INF treaty The US has confirmed that it will suspend compliance with the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty on 2 February, after a January meeting between US and Russian officials . Washington had first announced its intention to pull out of the treaty in October 2018, citing the dispute over Russia鈥檚 cruise missile system 9M729. Russia denies that 9M729 is in breach of the INF treaty. It聽has accused the US of violating the INF treaty聽itself, including by deploying the Aegis Ashore missile defence system in Romania and Poland.听 |
| 3 February | Salvadorian presidential elections Presidential elections in El Salvador are scheduled for 3 February, with former San Salvador Mayor Nayib Bukele leading in the polls. A victory for Bukele, who is running as an independent candidate, could mark a significant shift in Salvadorian politics which has been dominated for three decades by the right-wing National Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing Farabundo Mart铆 National Liberation Front (FMLN). The elections take place against the backdrop of a protracted security crisis, with El Salvador being one of the world's most violent countries not at war.听 |
| 5 February聽 | Donald Trump to deliver State of the Union speech聽 US president Donald Trump by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to deliver his State of the Union speech on 5 February. The address had originally been scheduled for 29 January but was postponed by Pelosi amid the longest partial government shutdown in US history, which had been triggered by聽Trump鈥檚 demand for funding to build a wall along the US-Mexico border. Trump and congressional leaders agreed to a temporary funding measure on 25 January, however, Trump has threatened to shut down the government again if no compromise on border security is reached by 15 February. |
| By 13 February | Theresa May to seek renegotiated Brexit deal Theresa May has to renegotiate her Brexit deal with the EU in an attempt to find "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop. However, it remains unclear what these arrangements could look like and the EU has vowed not to reopen the withdrawal agreement. 聽If no new deal is reached by 13 February, May will make a statement to parliament on that day and table an amendable motion for debate the following day.听 |
13-14 February | US-led summit on the Middle East The US is hosting a on 鈥渢errorism and extremism, missile development and proliferation, maritime trade and security, and threats posed by proxy groups鈥� in the Middle East. The summit鈥檚 original focus was on containing Iran's influence in the region, however, the agenda has been broadened as European diplomats have been reluctant to attend the summit. The US and the EU have been clashing over Iran since the Trump administration decided to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal. 聽 |
| 15-17 February聽 | Munich Security Conference聽 International policy makers and security experts will meet in Germany from 15 to 17 February for the annual . The three-day conference will focus on the future of transatlantic relations, EU foreign and security policy and other security and defence related topics.听 |
| 16 February | General elections in Nigeria 聽 Nigeria鈥檚 general elections on 16 February will be the sixth since the end of military rule in 1999. Although a large number of candidates are standing for election as president, the race is expected to be primarily a two-way contest between the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People鈥檚 Democratic Party (PDP). Ahead of the election, international observers have expressed concern about Buhari鈥檚 decision to , Walter Onnoghen, who would have played a key role in settling any election disputes. |
| 24 February | Presidential elections in Senegal聽 Presidential elections will be held in Senegal on 24 February. Incumbent president Macky Sall is facing four challengers, however, the two main opposition candidates, former Dakar mayor Khalifa Sall and ex-minister Karim Wade, have been in the election because of criminal convictions for misuse of public funds. |
| 24 February聽 | Moldovan parliamentary elections聽 聽 On 24 February, Moldovans will head to the polls for parliamentary elections. This will be the first elections to be held according to a new electoral system, passed in September 2017, systematically reduces opposition parties鈥� chances and is likely to increase electoral corruption. |
| 25 February | Next round of US-Taliban talks聽 The next round of peace talks between Afghanistan's Taliban and the US has been tentatively set for 25 February. This comes after six days of negotiations in Qatar last week resulted in a .听 |
| 27 February | UN high-level debate on international migration and development聽 The president of the UN General Assembly聽will hold a high-level debate on international migration and development on 27 February. The debate is expected to assess the implications of migration across the various goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.听 |
| End of February [TBC] | Second US-North Korea summit聽 聽 US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are by the end of February, according to the White House. At their last meeting in Singapore in June 2018, the two leaders agreed to 鈥渨ork toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula鈥�, however, the meeting failed to secure any concrete commitments from North Korea.听 |
| Notable Historical Anniversaries and International Days |
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