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Global Events Forecast - March 2019

28 February 2019

Every month, the GGI compiles a list of upcoming international events that have some implications for its work. Here is a compilation of global meetings and events coming up in March 2019.

Global Events Forecast - March 2019
3 March听

Parliamentary elections in Estonia听

Estonia's parliamentary elections are scheduled for 3 March 2019. Prime Minister J眉ri Ratas' Centre Party is leading in the polls, and Ratas is expected to have good chances of forming the new cabinet. The far-right party Estonian Conservative People's Party (EKRE) is polled to , which could make it the country's third political force. Estonia is an online voting pioneer and was the first in the world to use online balloting for a national election in 2005.

5-7 March听

World Ocean Summit

The sixth is being held from 5-7 March 2019 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, under the theme 鈥榖uilding bridges鈥. The meeting will bring together political, business and environmental leaders to discuss the role of governance, finance, technology and innovation in addressing the problems facing the world鈥檚 oceans.听

6 March

UN human rights chief to present annual report

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, will present her annual report to the UN Human Rights Council on 6 March. Made up of 47 elected UN member states, the Human Rights Council is the main inter-governmental UN body responsible for protecting and promoting human rights around the globe. Its is taking place from 25 February to 22 March in Geneva.听

7 March and 13 March听

Manafort sentencing hearings in Virginia and Washington

Paul Manafort, the former chairman of Donald Trump鈥檚 2016 presidential campaign, is by the federal court in Virginia on 7 March for bank and tax fraud. A week later, on 13 March, he will be sentenced by another federal judge in Washington DC, where he pleaded guilty to conspiracy and lying to investigators. Manafort is the first former Trump campaign official to be found guilty as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller鈥檚 investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 US election.听

10 March

Legislative elections in Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau will hold long-delayed legislative elections on 10 March. The elections are intended to break the political stalemate the West African country has found itself in since President Jose Mario Vaz sacked his prime minister in 2015. Guinea-Bissau is one of the world鈥檚 poorest countries and a major hub for drug trafficking in Africa.

12, 13 and 14 March

UK parliament votes on听Brexit

Theresa May that she will hold a 鈥榤eaningful vote鈥 on her Brexit deal - including any amendments she has agreed with the EU - by 12 March. If she loses that vote, the government will table a motion on the following day, asking MPs if they approve leaving the EU with no deal. If MPs reject a no deal Brexit, they will get a vote on 14 March on whether they support a delay of the EU withdrawal beyond 29 March. May reiterated that any extension to article 50 would not be longer than three months and 鈥溾.听

12-14 March听听

Syria donor conference听

The EU and the UN will co-chair the on 'Supporting the future of Syria and the region', taking place in Brussels from听12 to 14 March 2019. It will be key to ensure continued funding for humanitarian operations in Syria and neighbouring refugee-hosting countries. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), an will require life-saving humanitarian assistance across the country this year.听

13 March

UK Spring Statement听听

On 13 March 2019, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, will deliver his Spring Statement, the final major fiscal event before the UK is scheduled to formally leave听the EU. Given that last month saw a in public finances, Hammond faces increased pressures to deliver on his after nine years of austerity. However, the chancellor also faces risks from a struggling economy and a highly uncertain Brexit situation.听

15 March听

Global youth climate strike action听听

A global, coordinated strike by school students over climate change will take place on 15 March. Over the past months, thousands of students across the world have taken part in strike action to protest governments鈥 inaction in the face of global warming. The protests have been inspired by climate activist , a 16-year-old schoolgirl from Sweden, who started the movement by skipping school every Friday since August 2018.

16 March听

Presidential elections in Slovakia听 听听

Presidential elections will be held in Slovakia on 16 March, with the runoff scheduled for 30 March. Lawyer Zuzana 膶aputov谩 who is running for the left-wing party Progressive Slovakia is currently leading in the polls, closely followed by social democrat Maro拧 艩ef膷ovi膷, Vice-President of the European Commission.

17 March听

Loya Jirga to discuss Afghanistan peace process

Afghanistan is reportedly of tribal elders and political leaders 鈥 known as a loya Jirga 鈥 on 17 March to debate the future of the peace process. This could potentially provide a venue for the Taliban to enter into a dialogue with wider Afghan society. Peace talks have gained momentum in recent months after the US decided to engage with the Taliban, in an effort to end the 17-year war in Afghanistan.听

20 March听

Renewed push to expel Viktor Orb谩n from European parliament bloc听

Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orb谩n could be facing from the centre-right European People鈥檚 party (EPP), a large grouping of Christian democrat parties in the EU which currently holds the largest number of seats in the European parliament. Orb谩n and his aggressive anti-EU rhetoric will be on the agenda of the EPP political assembly on 20 March. However, not everyone in the EPP supports an exclusion of Orb谩n and his Fidesz party, given that the EPP is already expected to lose seats in the upcoming European elections.听

21-22 March

European Council meeting in Brussels听

EU leaders will gather for their annual spring summit in Brussels from 21 to 22 March. With barely a week to go until the official Brexit date, they could either sign off on last-minute changes to the withdrawal agreement 鈥 or agree to extend Article 50, if this is requested by the UK.

23 March听

March for a People's Vote

Another 鈥楶ut It To The People鈥 march is set to take place in London on 23 March, just six days before the UK is supposed to leave the European Union. The last march in October 2018 was joined by an estimated 670,000 protesters. Their key demand is that any Brexit deal should be put to a public vote for final approval. 听

24 March

General election in Thailand 听

On 24 March, Thailand is set to hold its first election since the 2014 military coup. The run up to the election has seen some dramatic events, including the nomination and immediate disqualification of Princess Ubolratana Mahidol, elder sister of the king, and the possible听 for which she had intended to run. In addition, the Thai police is seeking the , leader of the left-wing Future Forward party which caters particularly to younger voters. These developments are likely to play into the hands of the newly formed pro-military party, Palang Pracharat.

28 March

General Assembly High-Level Meeting on Climate Protection for All

On 28 March, the UN General Assembly will convene a . The meeting is intended to provide a bridge between last year鈥檚 climate summit in Katowice (COP24), the review of Sustainable Development Goal 13 at the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (scheduled for July 2019), and the UN 2019 Climate Summit (scheduled for September 2019).听

29 March听

Official Brexit date听

The UK is still officially scheduled听to leave the EU听on 29 March. However, it has become increasingly likely that an extension to Article 50 will be requested. Even if Theresa May wins a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March (see above), the UK might ask for a short extension to allow time to ratify the deal in law. A delay beyond the end of June, however, might mean that the UK has to take part in the European parliament elections in May.听

31 March听

Presidential elections in Ukraine听

Presidential elections will be held in Ukraine on 31 March. place comedian and political newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy in first place, followed by sitting president Petro Poroshenko and opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. Tymoshenko announced this week that she has against Poroshenko, following an investigation that links the president to a corruption scandal involving Russia. If no candidate wins 50 percent of the vote in the first round, which is likely, the top two candidates will face each other in a run-off on 21 April.听

March [TBC]听

Mueller investigation to be concluded

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is widely expected to deliver a confidential report to the attorney general within the next few weeks, summarising the findings of his investigation of Russia鈥檚 efforts to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election. The end of the investigation could spark a legal battle between Congress and the Justice Department over what information from the report will be released to Congress and the public. According to senior lawmaker Adam Schiff, the Democrats if it is not released to Congress and, if necessary, sue the government and call on Mueller to testify to Congress.

Late March [TBC]听

Xi and Trump to meet in Florida听

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at Trump's Mar-a-Lago golf club in Palm Beach, Florida, in late March to seek a definitive end to the long-running trade dispute between the world鈥檚 largest economies. Following several rounds of bilateral trade talks, Trump announced that substantial progress has been made and that the US will delay a menu of additional tariffs on Chinese goods that were scheduled to begin on 1 March.听