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Global Events Forecast - November 2018

1 November 2018

Every month, the GGI compiles a list of upcoming international events that have some implications for its work. Here is a compilation of global meetings and events coming up in November 2018.

Global Events Forecast - November 2018
4 November

Second tranche of US sanctions against Iran to take effect

The second round of US sanctions, which will go into effect on 4聽November, will target Iran's oil and gas sector. In anticipation of the sanctions, Iranian oil exports have already fallen significantly over the past six months, however, China and India, the largest buyers of Iranian oil, as well as Turkey and Russia are widely . The European Union has also set out a plan to sidestep US sanctions in an effort to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal.

4 November聽

New Caledonia independence referendum

New Caledonians will head to the polls on 4 November to vote on whether or not they want their country聽to assume full sovereignty as an independent state. New Caledonia is currently a partially self-governing special collectivity of France. If the status quo is confirmed, the local government of New Caledonia could vote to have a second referendum in two years鈥 time.

6 November

聽US midterm elections

The聽US midterm elections on 6 November are considered a significant referendum on Donald Trump鈥檚 presidency. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot this year, as well as 35 seats in the Senate and governorships in 36 states. The elections could see the , as key states have seen a surge in voter registration and early voting. Though it is hard to predict which party will be helped by an increased turnout, forecasts currently suggest that Democrats are likely to take back the House of Representatives while Republicans appear more likely to keep the Senate and win governorships in a narrow majority of states.听

7 November聽

Presidential elections in Madagascar

The first round of presidential elections in Madagascar is scheduled for 7 November. 36 candidates have entered the race, including incumbent President Rajaonarimampianina and three former presidents. Madagascar remains one of the poorest countries in the world and it is still recovering from a violent political crisis in 2009 that had serious economic consequences.

10 November

Tougher US rules on foreign investment

In November, the US will in sensitive industries such as technology and telecommunications. An expanded investment review system will allow the US to block more foreign transactions that are deemed a 鈥榯hreat to national security鈥. While the toughened investment regime will formally apply to all countries it is aimed largely at China.

11 November聽

Putin and Trump to meet in Paris聽

Preparations are on the way for a potential meeting between US president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Paris on 11 November. Both plan to be in France for events to commemorate the centennial of the end of WWI. This would be the first encounter between the two presidents since their controversial July summit in Helsinki.

11 November

Elections in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions

Scheduled elections in two East Ukrainian proto-states have sparked clashes between Russia and Western states at the UN Security Council. The European Union has urged the international community to oppose "鈥, arguing that they violate commitments made by separatists and Russia under the 2015 Minsk Agreements to settle the conflict in eastern Ukraine.听

11-15 November

33rd聽ASEAN Summit in Singapore

From 11-15 November, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will which is currently chairing the grouping. The meeting, which will focus on regional economic integration, security and other regional and international issues of common concern, will bring together leaders from the 10 ASEAN states as well as partner countries including China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia, Russia, and the United States.

17 - 24 November聽

UN Biodiversity Conference in Egypt聽聽聽

The conference of parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity will take place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, from 17-24 November. Member states聽are hoping to adopt a comprehensive framework for the protection of biodiversity beyond 2020. Ahead of the summit, a has revealed that more than 70% of the remaining untouched wilderness is located in just five countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Russia, and the United States).

30 November - 1 December

G20 Summit in Buenos Aires

World leaders from 19 countries and the EU will gather in Buenos Aires from 30 November to 1 December for the first-ever G20 summit to be hosted in South America. takes place under the theme 'Building consensus for fair and sustainable development' and will focus on three key issues: the future of work, infrastructure for development, and a sustainable food future. Many leaders are also planning to meet bilaterally on the sidelines of the event, including US president Donald Trump and China鈥檚 president Xi Jinping.

Mid-November [TBC]

Myanmar to start repatriating Rohingya refugees聽聽

Bangladesh and Myanmar have agreed to in November. This is, however, not the first time a date for repatriation has been set and it comes amidst that the genocide against the Muslim minority is still ongoing. Over 700,000 Rohingya have fled the violence in Myanmar since last August, taking shelter in overcrowded camps in Bangladesh.听

Mid-November [TBC]

Potential Brexit Summit

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab that the terms of a final Brexit deal between the UK and the EU could be finalised at a special meeting of EU leaders in mid-November. A meeting has provisionally been pencilled in for 17-18 November. However, this is conditional on substantial progress on outstanding issues, in particular a breakthrough on the Irish border question.听

Notable Anniversaries and International Days
  • 2 November: International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists
  • 6 November: International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict聽
  • 11 November: Cetennial of the Armestice to End World War I
  • 20 November: Universal Children's Day
  • 25 November: International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women
  • 30 November: Day of Remembrance for all Victims of Chemical Warfare

For more global events, especially those related to peace and security issues, please refer to the website of the .听